2
Temperatures in the Study Area are projected to increase by between about 1.5° and 4°C by 2070, with
smaller changes projected for 2030 and 2050. Heat waves are projected to worsen, particularly by 2070.
Their frequency, duration and intensity are all projected to increase.
Rainfall is projected to decline by 2-5% in 2030 and by as much as 20-40% by 2070 across the Adelaide
region. Extreme rainfall events are projected to become more intense during spring and summer.
Projected changes in wind speed and relative humidity are generally small. Annual average wind speeds
is not projected to be affected by climate change to 2070. Seasonal average wind speeds
may be affected, with average wind speed in winter projected to decrease by 2.5%. Average summer
wind speeds are projected to increase by 2.5%.
Recommendations
x
Examine the effects of the urban heat island (UHI), which may exacerbate the intensity of heatwave
weather conditions and their impacts on vulnerable members of the community.
x
Over the coming 2-3 years, update the climate change projections used for the WARCCAP to
incorporate climate modelling being undertaken for the IPCC’s forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report
and for the Goyder Institute.
Coastal Issues
Global mean sea level is projected to increase by between 18cm and 140cm by 2100, with an 83cm rise
projected under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Land subsidence in the Study Area could
exacerbate the impacts of sea level rise on coastal flooding.
Under a high sea level rise scenario for 2100, storm tides could reach areas that are currently 2.4m
above mean sea level. Damage resulting from such floods is estimated to exceed $180 million
(compared with $26-28 million currently).
Exposure of the Study Area to inundation resulting from projected sea level rise has been modelled for
various timescales and scenarios. These analyses show that residential and other buildings in these
areas could be exposed to periodic coastal flooding events, resulting from storm tides and sea level rise.
Coastal recession presents a significant risk to infrastructure, beaches and other natural features fringing
the coastline. Coastal recession under a high sea level rise scenario could exceed 80 metres, although
planned coastal protection works are expected to significantly reduce this.
Coastal areas will experience various impacts in relation to groundwater quality, acid sulphate soils, land
subsidence, loss of beach amenity and changes to ecological systems.
Recommendations
x
Undertake modelling of beach recession and impacts upon natural and built environs across the
Study Area. This should include an audit of current protection measures.
