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An example of climate representations from the CSIRO dataset is shown in
Figure 4.12
, which shows the
percent change in summer rainfall for 2070 (actually the period 2060-2079) for South Australia. Changes
for other climate variables were derived from similar datasets and used as the basis of the analyses
presented in this report.
Figure 4.12: Rainfall projections for South Australia under low, medium and high emissions scenarios (B1,
A1B and A1FI SRES scenarios, respectively).
Source:
and CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
(2007)
Figure 4.12
shows the percentage change in rainfall (from 1980-1999 average) resulting from each of three
emissions scenarios: low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI). Results are also presented for the 10
th
percentile (dry
extreme) result from the ensemble of 23 GCMs, as well as the median (50
th
percentile) and 90
th
percentile (wet
extreme).
This graph shows that there is a wide divergence among GCMs in their 2070 projections of change in summer rainfall
in response to climate change.
