41
Figure 4.17: Projected monthly rainfall for the Study Area
’
s meteorological stations: 1980-1999 reference
period, 2000-2012 and under 2030 and 2070 scenarios (low emissions 90
th
percentile rainfall
and high emissions 10
th
percentile GCM outputs).
Source: Derived from Bureau of Meteorology data, using climate change factors from DENR 2010.
Changes in annual average rainfall in the 1980-1999 climate change projection reference period under
various climate change scenarios are given in
Table 4.2.
By 2030 average annual rainfall could decline
by as much as 60 mm/y or increase by up to 8 mm/y. By 2070, average annual rainfall decline by a
further 100 mm/y or more or increase by up to about 20 mm/y. Under both a medium and high emissions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Projectedaverage monthly rainfall (mm)
Adelaideairport
Meanmonthly rainfall (wholerecord)
Meanannual rainfall (2000-2012)
2030Low-(90thpercentile)
2030High- (10thpercentile)
2070Low-(90thpercentile)
2070High-(10thpercentile)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Projectedaverage monthly rainfall (mm)
Saltworks
Meanmonthly rainfall (wholerecord)
Meanannual rainfall (2000-2012)
2030Low-(90thpercentile)
2030High- (10thpercentile)
2070Low-(90thpercentile)
2070High-(10thpercentile)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Projectedaverage monthly rainfall (mm)
Pooraka
Meanmonthly rainfall (wholerecord)
Meanannual rainfall (2000-2012)
2030Low-(90thpercentile)
2030High- (10thpercentile)
2070Low-(90thpercentile)
2070High-(10thpercentile)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Projectedaverage monthly rainfall (mm)
Seaton
Meanmonthly rainfall (wholerecord)
Meanannual rainfall (2000-2012)
2030Low-(90thpercentile)
2030High- (10thpercentile)
2070Low-(90thpercentile)
2070High-(10thpercentile)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Projectedaverage monthly rainfall (mm)
Seaton
Meanmonthly rainfall (whole record)
Mean annual rainfall (2000-2012)
2030 Low- (90th percentile)
2030 High- (10th percentile)
2070 Low- (90th percentile)
2070 High- (10th percentile)
