43
Figure 4.18: Exceedance curve for daily rainfall for the Adelaide airport meteorological station and
the projected influence of climate change. Climate change scenarios are based on the
median temperature projections 2030 and 2070 high emissions and 2070 low emissions
scenarios.
Source: Derived from Bureau of Meteorology data
4.7.6. Wind speed
Projections of change in wind speed in response to climate change are presented for South Australia in
Figure 4.19
. They show that under all emissions scenarios from 2030 to 2070, there is unlikely to be any
net change in annual average wind speed projected under the most likely climate change outcomes (i.e.
for 50
th
percentile outputs from the ensemble of GCMs). Some GCMs project increases in average wind
speed of up to 5% in the Adelaide region by 2070, while others project decreases of up to 15%.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
Daily rainfall (mm)
Probability of exceedence
Historical
2030 high 50% 2070 low 50% 2070 high 50%
1 y ARI
10 y ARI
100 y ARI
