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14. Regional Growth Projections
14.1. Background
The population within the Study Area is expected to grow substantially over the next ten, thirty and fifty
years and beyond. With this growth, there will be considerable change in the characteristic of the
population, which will influence region’s resilience to climate change.
A key driver of regional growth in the Study Area (comprising Western Adelaide and the eastern part of
the City of Port Adelaide Enfield) is South Australia’s Strategic Plan, which contains aspirational
population growth targets, along with targets to grow the city upwards, not outwards. The
30 Year Plan
for Greater Adelaide (2010)
provides the spatial land use framework to help achieve these targets,
including establishing population, dwellings and jobs targets at a regional level, and identifying a number
of sites for comprehensive redevelopment.
Other drivers of growth include the
Economic Statement
(2009) prepared by the Economic Development
Board, the State Government’s
Housing and Employment Land Supply Program
(2010) Report and
research and policy developed at a regional and Local Government scale.
This profile of regional growth projections summarises population projections for Western Adelaide, as
well as expected changes to the urban form and the regional economy.
14.2. Population Projections
14.2.1. State Government Population Projections
The following population projections were prepared by the then Department of Planning and Local
Government in 2011. These population projections were developed using the same methodology and
modelling which informed the growth projections in the
30 Year Plan for Greater Adelaide,
based on a
number of assumptions about fertility, mortality, migration and residential development.
As summarised in
Table 14.1
below, these projections expect the 2011 Census figure of 215,516
residents in Western Adelaide to increase to 255,745 by 2026. This represents an annual growth rate of
1.2% per annum, which is nearly twice the growth rate experienced between the 2001 and 2011
Censuses of 0.63%. The difference between the historical rates of growth and the projections are
illustrated by
Figure 14.1
below. Supporting data tables are provided in Section 2.1
of
Appendix C.
Table 14.1: DPLG Population Projections
Port Adelaide
Enfield
Charles
Sturt
West
Torrens
Western
Adelaide
1
Adelaide Statistical
Division
2016
124,310
115,037
59,731
237,254
1,303,027
2021
128,589
120,658
62,190
247,445
1,366,677
2026
130,556
125,889
64,390
255,748
1,420,869
Data Source: Department of Planning and Local Government 2026 Population Projections (prepared in 2011)
1 Western Adelaide is defined as per the State Government boundaries.
