218
Figure 14.2: Comparison of the projected age structure of the population in 2026
1
Data Source: DPLG 2026 Population Projections (prepared in 2011)
1
Western Adelaide is defined as per the State Government boundaries.
14.2.2. ABS Long Term Forecasts
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) use a different methodology for projecting the size of the
population into the future. The ABS methodology differs from the State Government approach due to
different assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.
The ABS projections take a very long term approach, measuring the likely size of the population between
2008 and 2056. Due to the many variables associated with the possible size of the future population and
the number of assumptions that must be made, the ABS provides low, medium and high projection
scenarios.
Due to the many assumptions and uncertainties associated with these projections, data is only available
on a State-wide and metropolitan Adelaide basis.
Figure 14.3
below summarises three long term
population scenarios for the Adelaide Statistical Division. While the scenarios do not significantly differ in
the short term, the overall size of the population in 2056 could constitute anything from 1.62 to 1.85
million depending on the combination of factors around fertility, mortality and internal and external
migration.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-4 years 5-14 years 15-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years Greater than
65 years
Percentage of population
Port Adelaide Enfield
Charles Sturt
West Torrens
Western Adelaide
Adelaide Statistical Division
