221
Figure 14.5: Projected Changes to Medium Ages across the Adelaide Statistical Division
Data Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101(Catalogue No 3222.0) and DPLG 2026 Population Projections (prepared in 2011).
Figure 14.6
below summarises projected changes to the ‘Dependency Ratio’ in the Adelaide Statistical
Division between 2012 and 2056. The dependency ratio compares the size of the working age population
to the size of the non-working age population, calculated as the sum of people aged 0-14 and 65 years
and over (that is, 'dependents') divided by the number of people aged 15-64 years, multiplied by 100. As
the dependency ratio increases, there are proportionally more ‘dependents’ for every person in the
working age populaiton.
The chart below demonstrates that all three population scenarios are likely to be associated with an
increased number of dependents in the population. However, it is the high population scenario that is
associated with the greatest increase in the dependency ratio (possibly because of an assumption that a
high rate of population growth will see a rise in the proportion of children in the population).
The implications of a changing climate on a population with a high proportion of dependents are not well
understood. On one hand, a community with more dependents may need to work harder to ensure its
older people are not in immediate danger in extreme weather events, and are able to understand the
importance of taking adequate precautions. On the other hand, such communities may have stronger
social capital and access to resources to assist them to make such decisions. Additional research
regarding the climate impacts of demographic change is needed.
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
2016
2026
2036
2046
2056
Percentage of population
Series A (high)
Series B (moderate)
Series C (low)
