Atmosphere
Page 132
development of regional climate change scenarios for South Australia. This
extract comes from the 2007 IPCC Summary for Policymakers report. The ʻlow
emissions scenarioʼ used in this report refers to the B1 scenario below;
ʻmediumʼ is A1B. The below table includes
percentiles (10%, 50% and 90%) for
A1B, and percentiles (10% and 50%) for scenario B1. The 50
th
Percentile (the
mid point of the spread of model results provides the best estimate of results for
both the A1B and B1 scenarios (CSIRO, 2007). .
Condition Indicator:
Days per year over 35 degrees
Table 23: Summary of Predicted Climate Change for Adelaide
(Source: CSIRO, Climate Change in Australia, Technical Report, City Summaries, 2007)
Variable
Season
2030
A1B
10p
2030
A1B
50p
2030
A1B
90p
2070
B1
10p
2070
B1
50p
Annual
0.6
0.9
1.3
1
1.5
Summer
0.6
0.9
1.4
1
1.6
Autumn
0.6
0.9
1.3
0.9
1.5
Winter
0.5
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.3
Temperature (
o
C)
Spring
0.6
0.9
1.3
1
1.5
No. days over 35
o
C
(Currently 17)
Annual
21.3
23.0
25.5
24.0
26.4
Annual
-11
-4
+2
-18
-7
Summer
-14
-2
+11
-23
-3
Autumn
-11
-1
+9
-18
-2
Winter
-15
-6
+2
-23
-10
Rainfall (%)
Spring
-19
-8
+3
-30
-12
Annual
0
+2
+4
+1
+3
Summer
0
+2
+5
0
+3
Autumn
+1
+3
+5
+2
+5
Winter
+1
+5
+12
+2
+8
Potential evaporation (%)
Spring
-1
+1
+3
-2
+1
Annual
-3
0
+3
-6
0
Summer
-1
+2
+6
-2
+4
Autumn
-6
0
+5
-9
-1
Winter
-8
-2
+4
-13
-3
Wind-speed (%)
Spring
-6
0
+5
-10
0
Relative humidity (%)
Annual
-1.5
-0.7
+0.0
-2.6
-1.1
Solar radiation (%)
Annual
-0.2
+0.4
+1.2
-0.4
+0.7
